Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026?
60%
Limited history+35.0pp
24h activity $27Closes 31 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
54%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
54%
24h Change
+9.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $202 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 60.0% | +35.0pp | $140 | active |
| Ian Machado Garry | 3.0% | -1.4pp | $814 | active |
| Jiří Procházka | 1.4% | — | $252 | active |
| Manel Kape | 19.5% | +3.5pp | $644 | active |
| Diego Lopes | 5.3% | -2.9pp | $663 | active |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0.8% | — | $614 | active |
| Leon Edwards | 2.0% | — | $239 | active |
| Kamaru Usman | 1.4% | — | $482 | active |
| Paddy Pimblett | 6.3% | -2.9pp | $2K | active |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 10.5% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
| Ciryl Gane | 47.0% | +11.0pp | $209 | active |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0.5% | -1.6pp | $3K | active |
| Sean O'Malley | 20.2% | +2.3pp | $421 | active |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 11.0% | — | $517 | active |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13.9% | +1.3pp | $495 | active |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 54.0% | +9.0pp | $202 | active |
| Alexander Volkov | 10.6% | +0.1pp | $679 | active |
| Belal Muhammad | 2.8% | -0.2pp | $522 | active |
| Cory Sandhagen | 1.2% | +1.1pp | $438 | active |
| Aljamain Sterling | 33.5% | +0.5pp | $10 | active |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10.0% | — | $508 | active |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 18.0% | -8.0pp | $343 | active |
| Charles Oliveira | 19.0% | -2.0pp | $380 | active |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 4.0% | — | $506 | active |
| Yair Rodriguez | 5.0% | — | $469 | active |
| Max Holloway | 8.5% | — | $787 | active |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 38.5% | — | $272 | active |
| Sean Strickland | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
60%
3%
1%
20%
5%
1%