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Current implied probability
19%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
19%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $366 and 24h activity is $5. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 18.5% | -1.5pp | $366 | active |
| January 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| December 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| February 28, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| February 15, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 15, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MegaETH launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from MegaETH, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
No closely related markets found.
No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
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