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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+2.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 23 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Hollande | 58.0% | +3.5pp | $257 | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 6.5% | +2.6pp | $849 | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 76.5% | — | $1K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 8.5% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 5.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 20.6% | — | $84 | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 17.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 64.0% | +1.5pp | $515 | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2.8% | -2.1pp | $8K | active |
| François Bayrou | 11.5% | +1.1pp | $238 | active |
| Jean Castex | 8.0% | +1.0pp | $9K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 14.1% | +1.1pp | $44 | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 14.0% | -1.5pp | $202 | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 59.0% | — | $254 | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 11.0% | — | $360 | active |
| Michel Barnier | 13.5% | -0.5pp | $28 | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 43.5% | -5.5pp | $46 | active |
| Carole Delga | 12.5% | — | $8K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 100.0% | +2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Gabriel Attal | 100.0% | +8.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.