Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Joe Willis win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?
2%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $14KCloses 22 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
21%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
21%
24h Change
-3.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $62 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Willis | 1.6% | — | $138 | active |
| Aljaž Ivačič | 17.9% | +8.0pp | $144 | active |
| John Pulskamp | 10.2% | +0.3pp | $74 | active |
| Dayne St. Clair | 24.5% | — | $51 | active |
| Hugo Lloris | 4.2% | -34.7pp | $79 | active |
| Roman Bürki | 38.9% | +1.1pp | $62 | active |
| Lucas Hoyos | 1.2% | — | $66 | active |
| Jonathan Sirois | 44.3% | -0.8pp | $59 | active |
| Novak Mićović | 5.0% | — | $58 | active |
| Roman Celentano | 6.4% | — | $75 | active |
| Pedro Gallese | 13.4% | -10.1pp | $111 | active |
| Stefan Frei | 35.4% | -0.1pp | $66 | active |
| Luis Barraza | 20.9% | -3.5pp | $62 | active |
| Chris Brady | 39.6% | +15.4pp | $49 | active |
| Rafael Cabral | 27.4% | -4.0pp | $65 | active |
| Brad Stuver | 33.0% | +0.1pp | $63 | active |
| Kristijan Kahlina | 42.4% | +17.2pp | $58 | active |
| CJ dos Santos | 32.8% | -0.9pp | $58 | active |
| Michael Collodi | 36.5% | -1.5pp | $48 | active |
| Jonathan Bond | 25.0% | — | $44 | active |
| Oscar Ustari | 4.5% | -14.7pp | $105 | active |
| Andre Blake | 39.9% | -0.1pp | $61 | active |
| Matt Freese | 4.7% | -33.6pp | $78 | active |
| Zack Steffen | 40.1% | -0.7pp | $62 | active |
| Yohei Takaoka | 30.0% | -2.5pp | $53 | active |
| James Pantemis | 5.4% | — | $72 | active |
| Sean Johnson | 35.0% | +0.05pp | $50 | active |
| Daniel | 40.5% | -0.1pp | $57 | active |
| Carlos Coronel | 6.5% | — | $82 | active |
| Patrick Schulte | 5.2% | — | $68 | active |
Probability sum: 672.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 22 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
18%
10%
25%
4%
39%