Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
85%
Limited history
24h activity $2KCloses 20 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 84.5% | — | $58K | active |
| SPD | 15.5% | — | $45K | active |
| FDP | 0.1% | — | $47K | active |
| Grüne | 0.1% | — | $46K | active |
| CDU | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| FW | 0.1% | — | $52K | active |
| Linke | 0.1% | — | $28K | active |
| BSW | 0.1% | — | $45K | active |
Probability sum: 100.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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