EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?

47%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCLow-confidence move-5.0pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

47%

24h Change

-5.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 5.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
47.0%
No implied probability
53.0%
Liquidity
$958
Market Activity
$58K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between January 27, 2026, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

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