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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+17.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between December 30, 2025, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4 | 51.5% | +2.0pp | $15K | active |
| ↑ $8 | 6.3% | +0.6pp | $4K | active |
| ↑ $10 | 4.5% | +0.1pp | $19K | active |
| ↑ $6 | 18.0% | +0.5pp | $2K | active |
| ↓ $2 | 100.0% | +17.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $1.5 | 100.0% | +13.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $3 | 100.0% | +23.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $1 | 100.0% | +2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.