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Sport

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

2%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus-0.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

2%

24h Change

-0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.1%
No implied probability
97.8%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$219K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if LeBron James retires from the NBA before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement from James that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred, as long as the announced retirement is stated to take effect before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Announcements that he will retire after the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from LeBron James, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 21 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC

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