EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

24%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCStable consensus-0.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24%

24h Change

-0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
23.6%
No implied probability
76.3%
Liquidity
$5K
Market Activity
$470K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 16 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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