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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 21 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda Castro | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $440K | awaiting resolution |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 99.8% | +0.5pp | $410K | awaiting resolution |
| Roy Barreras | 0.1% | — | $523K | awaiting resolution |
| Vicky Dávila (IND) | 0.1% | — | $394K | awaiting resolution |
| Gustavo Bolívar (HC) | 0.1% | — | $473K | awaiting resolution |
| Paloma Valencia | 0.1% | — | $230K | awaiting resolution |
| Mauricio Cárdenas | 0.1% | — | $509K | awaiting resolution |
| Sergio Fajardo (DC) | 0.1% | — | $297K | awaiting resolution |
| Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) | 0.1% | — | $463K | awaiting resolution |
| David Luna Sánchez (IND) | 0.1% | — | $518K | awaiting resolution |
| Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) | 0.1% | — | $545K | awaiting resolution |
| Enrique Peñalosa | 0.1% | — | $483K | awaiting resolution |
| Claudia López (IND) | 0.1% | — | $442K | awaiting resolution |
| Juan Manuel Galán (NL) | 0.1% | — | $503K | awaiting resolution |
| Carlos Felipe Córdoba | 0.1% | — | $514K | awaiting resolution |
| Daniel Quintero | 0.1% | — | $503K | awaiting resolution |
| Juan Carlos Pinzón | 0.1% | — | $471K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.