EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

48%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-4.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 4.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

48%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.5pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
48.0%
No implied probability
52.0%
Liquidity
$984K
Market Activity
$5.4M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
25 Jun 2026, 20:33 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 25 Jun 2026, 20:44 UTC

What this market asks

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Current market read

This market tracks whether Japan wins on 2026-06-25, with the current market-implied probability at 48.05%. It is one outcome market for Japan within the multi-outcome event "Japan vs. Sweden," so the volume and liquidity shown reflect this outcome's market activity only. The latest snapshot shows 24h movement of -4.45 and 24h volume of 3,737,906.49.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is near even at 48.05%.
  • 24h movement is down 4.45 points.
  • This outcome's market activity shows substantial volume and liquidity.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome market within a multi-outcome event, so figures reflect this outcome's market activity only.
  • Resolution depends on official match statistics, with a fallback to credible reporting if needed.
  • The description does not provide team form, lineup, or other match context.

Resolution summary

This market resolves to "Yes" if Japan wins the game, and to "No" otherwise. It refers only to the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, it resolves "No". The primary resolution source is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if final match statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event ends, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 25, 2026 If Japan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 25 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC

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