Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Marcelo Silva win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?
1%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $5Closes 12 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
4%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
-26.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 26.9pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $157 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Silva | 0.9% | +0.3pp | $182 | active |
| Enea Mihaj | 0.9% | -3.1pp | $176 | active |
| David Brekalo | 0.6% | -10.8pp | $162 | active |
| Jakob Glesnes | 3.8% | -26.9pp | $157 | active |
| Zac McGraw | 28.1% | +0.2pp | $106 | active |
| Rodrigues | 28.0% | — | $92 | active |
| Jackson Ragen | 36.3% | +2.8pp | $105 | active |
| Lucas Bartlett | 2.1% | -0.3pp | $235 | active |
| Dany Rosero | 4.8% | -0.6pp | $145 | active |
| Robin Jansson | 24.7% | -0.3pp | $146 | active |
| Gabriele Corbo | 1.4% | +0.3pp | $152 | active |
| Maya Yoshida | 0.1% | — | $151 | active |
| Andrés Reyes | 7.3% | +0.1pp | $110 | active |
| Walker Zimmerman | 4.1% | -24.4pp | $138 | active |
| Aaron Long | 24.9% | — | $85 | active |
| Andrew Privett | 1.6% | — | $182 | active |
| Daniel Munie | 4.5% | -29.0pp | $78 | active |
| Micael | 30.1% | +0.05pp | $108 | active |
| Rudy Camacho | 31.8% | -1.9pp | $120 | active |
| Brendan Hines-Ike | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $79 | active |
| Yeimar Gómez Andrade | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $60 | active |
| Tristan Blackmon | 28.4% | -0.8pp | $111 | active |
| Yevhen Cheberko | 4.1% | -0.1pp | $80 | active |
| Kevin Long | 0.7% | — | $97 | active |
| Andreas Maxsø | 29.9% | +1.4pp | $106 | active |
| Adilson Malanda | 17.1% | +5.9pp | $84 | active |
| Sebastien Ibeagha | 4.8% | — | $82 | active |
| Sigurd Rosted | 0.1% | — | $171 | active |
| Miguel Tapias | 4.5% | -29.5pp | $108 | active |
| Joel Waterman | 31.9% | +1.4pp | $84 | active |
| Michael Boxall | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $74 | active |
| Ranko Veselinović | 0.6% | — | $174 | active |
| Matt Miazga | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $183 | active |
| Eddie Segura | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $79 | active |
| Jack Maher | 4.4% | -29.3pp | $108 | active |
| Sean Nealis | 3.7% | -0.05pp | $79 | active |
| Thiago Martins | 21.1% | -4.0pp | $168 | active |
| Kamal Miller | 4.4% | -30.1pp | $75 | active |
| Noah Eile | 30.4% | +3.5pp | $103 | active |
| Erik Sviatchenko | 0.6% | -3.0pp | $185 | active |
| Jack Elliott | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $106 | active |
| Carlos Terán | 0.6% | — | $165 | active |
| Nkosi Tafari | 29.5% | +1.3pp | $82 | active |
| Christopher McVey | 2.5% | — | $92 | active |
| Tim Parker | 0.3% | — | $192 | active |
| Joakim Nilsson | 0.9% | — | $66 | active |
| Justen Glad | 35.5% | +5.0pp | $93 | active |
| Donovan Pines | 4.3% | -23.6pp | $159 | active |
| Miles Robinson | 0.5% | — | $170 | active |
| Maximiliano Falcón | 3.9% | +0.2pp | $79 | active |
| Dave Romney | 31.6% | -0.8pp | $90 | active |
| Henry Kessler | 27.7% | +0.5pp | $100 | active |
| Jalen Neal | 3.4% | — | $83 | active |
| Oleksandr Svatok | 34.0% | +30.2pp | $93 | active |
| Robert Voloder | 36.0% | +1.0pp | $53 | active |
| Birk Risa | 4.0% | -24.9pp | $87 | active |
| Tomás Avilés | 0.8% | — | $166 | active |
| Mauricio Pineda | 29.9% | -0.6pp | $94 | active |
| Lalas Abubakar | 30.6% | +26.5pp | $88 | active |
| Stian Gregersen | 1.1% | — | $76 | active |
Probability sum: 704.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Defender of the Year award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 12 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
1%
1%
28%
28%
36%