Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
76%
Limited history+3.4pp
24h activity $955Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $34K and 24h activity is $20. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76.0% | +3.4pp | $24K | active |
| 11 | 0.1% | — | $54K | active |
| 9 | 0.3% | — | $48K | active |
| 5 | 18.9% | -0.9pp | $34K | active |
| 12 | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $59K | active |
| 15+ | 0.1% | — | $37K | active |
| 7 | 0.7% | -0.2pp | $34K | active |
| 8 | 0.3% | — | $40K | active |
| 10 | 0.3% | — | $49K | active |
| 6 | 2.5% | -0.5pp | $35K | active |
| 13 | 0.1% | — | $36K | active |
| 14 | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
| 0 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| 1 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| 3 | 0.0% | -34.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| 2 | 0.0% | -1.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
76%
0%
0%
19%
0%
0%