EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

2%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+1.3pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 1.3pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

2%

24h Change

+1.3pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

2

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.3pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
1.8%
No implied probability
98.2%
Liquidity
$18K
Market Activity
$172K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
2 Jul 2026, 21:52 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTC

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