EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update-0.8pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

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Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is $4K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$51K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTC

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