Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
15%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
9
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0.4% | — |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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Current implied probability
15%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: Low| $17K |
| active |
| December 31 | 23.5% | +2.0pp | $2K | active |
| August 31 | 14.5% | — | $25 | active |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
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