Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
1%
Limited history-17.4pp
24h activity $680Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
92%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
92%
24h Change
+20.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 20.2pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $776 and 24h activity is $3K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 91.7% | +20.2pp | $776 | active |
| Ian Machado Garry | 1.1% | -17.4pp | $1K | active |
| Carlos Prates | 4.3% | -0.6pp | $1K | active |
| Michael Morales | 0.4% | +0.05pp | $980 | active |
| Kamaru Usman | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Sean Brady | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Belal Muhammad | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Leon Edwards | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 97.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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