Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Gabriel Moreno lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?
1%
Limited history+0.9pp
24h activity $192Closes 11 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $232 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | 1.0% | +0.9pp | $77 | active |
| Kevin McGonigle | 2.7% | -1.6pp | $129 | active |
| Aaron Judge | 0.1% | — | $272 | active |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.2% | — | $502 | active |
| Bryan Reynolds | 36.9% | -1.6pp | $271 | active |
| Josh Jung | 4.3% | -0.05pp | $362 | active |
| Bo Bichette | 0.1% | — | $520 | active |
| James Wood | 2.3% | -0.05pp | $216 | active |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.2% | — | $506 | active |
| Matt Olson | 39.3% | +1.8pp | $158 | active |
| Nico Hoerner | 41.1% | +3.5pp | $72 | active |
| Taylor Ward | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $477 | active |
| Ernie Clement | 34.0% | -4.0pp | $798 | active |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0.5% | — | $138 | active |
| Yordan Alvarez | 5.3% | +0.1pp | $95 | active |
| Bryce Harper | 0.6% | — | $152 | active |
| Jarren Duran | 0.3% | — | $592 | active |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 0.1% | — | $359 | active |
| Shohei Ohtani | 6.3% | +0.5pp | $173 | active |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.4% | — | $256 | active |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 2.0% | -0.05pp | $208 | active |
| CJ Abrams | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $35 | active |
| Willy Adames | 40.0% | +3.6pp | $289 | active |
| Brent Rooker | 0.1% | — | $177 | active |
| George Springer | 0.1% | — | $517 | active |
| Pete Alonso | 0.3% | — | $183 | active |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.1% | — | $248 | active |
| Christian Walker | 0.6% | — | $51 | active |
| Nick Kurtz | 0.3% | — | $347 | active |
| Riley Greene | 1.9% | -0.05pp | $118 | active |
| Salvador Perez | 1.4% | -0.3pp | $277 | active |
| Juan Soto | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $288 | active |
| Ian Happ | 2.4% | +0.3pp | $232 | active |
| Casey Schmitt | 0.3% | — | $195 | active |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 6.5% | — | $250 | active |
| Freddie Freeman | 7.5% | — | $207 | active |
| Colt Keith | 0.1% | — | $225 | active |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.1% | — | $228 | active |
| Andy Pages | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $155 | active |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.8% | — | $187 | active |
| Mauricio Dubón | 2.9% | +0.1pp | $186 | active |
Probability sum: 249.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
3%
0%
0%
37%
4%