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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8.5% | -1.0pp | $16K | active |
| March 31 | 0.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.