EAEventAlpha
Finance

Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?

49%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLow-confidence move+39.0pp (24h)

Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

49%

24h Change

+39.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

5

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 39.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
49.0%
No implied probability
51.0%
Liquidity
$113
Market Activity
$664
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:37 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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