EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

21%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCStable consensus

Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

21%

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

20

0%25%50%75%100%2:007:0012:0016:0021:00

Movement Read

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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
20.5%
No implied probability
79.5%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$0
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 14 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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