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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 17:30 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $3,800 | 0.1% | -0.8pp | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| ↓ $3,400 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $23K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $6,200 | 0.1% | — | $166K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $4,800 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $32K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $4,400 | 0.1% | -1.1pp | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,300 | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $25K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $4,900 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $36K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $10,000 | 0.1% | — | $120K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $9,000 | 0.1% | — | $160K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $8,500 | 0.1% | — | $166K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,000 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $21K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,200 | 0.1% | — | $29K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $6,000 | 0.1% | — | $163K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,100 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $16K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,500 | 0.1% | — | $179K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $7,000 | 0.1% | — | $128K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $8,000 | 0.1% | — | $131K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $6,500 | 0.1% | — | $172K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,700 | 0.1% | — | $122K | awaiting resolution |
| ↑ $5,400 | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.