Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
16%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $25Closes 23 Nov 2025
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Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Dias da Costa | 16.1% | +0.3pp | $2K | active |
| Umaro Sissoco Embaló | 14.6% | — | $902 | active |
| Siga Batista | 6.5% | — | $11K | active |
| José Mário Vaz | 2.7% | -0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Mamadu Iaia Djaló | 2.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Gabriel Fernando Indi | 2.0% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Honório Augusto Lopes | 2.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Mário da Silva Júnior | 2.0% | — | $9K | active |
| João de Deus Mendes | 2.5% | — | $10K | active |
| João Bernardo Vieira | 2.2% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Herculano Armando Bequinsa | 1.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Baciro Djá | 2.8% | +0.05pp | $10K | active |
Probability sum: 57.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 23 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
16%
15%
7%
3%
2%
3%