Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?
5%
Limited history+0.8pp
Lifetime volume $173KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
12%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
12%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 5.3% | +0.8pp | $775 | active |
| Germany | 3.9% | — | $11K | active |
| New Zealand | 13.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Belgium | 18.0% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| The Netherlands | 14.5% | -1.0pp | $361 | active |
| Japan | 10.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Greece | 5.9% | — | $11K | active |
| Finland | 11.5% | -1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Italy | 14.0% | +1.5pp | $406 | active |
| United States | 5.0% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Israel | 4.0% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
5%
4%
13%
18%
15%
11%