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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe (UEFA) | 100.0% | +41.5pp | $128K | resolved |
| South America (CONMEBOL) | 0.1% | -40.5pp | $219K | resolved |
| Africa (CAF) | 0.0% | -2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Oceania (OCF) | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| North America (CONCACAF) | 0.0% | -3.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Asia (AFC) | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.