Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
17%
Limited history+1.8pp
24h activity $5KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
81%Probability is barely changed (down 1.2pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
81%
24h Change
-1.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.2pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Barlow | 80.7% | -1.2pp | $35K | active |
| Megan Degenfelder | 17.4% | +1.8pp | $57K | active |
| Brent Bien | 2.8% | -0.1pp | $45K | active |
| Chuck Gray | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Joseph Kibler | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Harriet Hageman | 0.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Reid Rasner | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Bo Biteman | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Tara Nethercott | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Mark Gordon | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Chip Neiman | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Paul Ulrich | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Cheri Steinmetz | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Curt Meier | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Ogen Driskill | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
Probability sum: 101.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
17%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%