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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $31K | awaiting resolution |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $34K | awaiting resolution |
| Bill Clinton | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $24K | awaiting resolution |
| Kevin Spacey | 0.9% | +0.3pp | $15K | awaiting resolution |
| Harvey Weinstein | 0.8% | +0.5pp | $24K | awaiting resolution |
| Jay-Z | 0.1% | — | $29K | awaiting resolution |
| Michael Jackson | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $20K | awaiting resolution |
| Bill Gates | 0.5% | +0.2pp | $18K | awaiting resolution |
| Steven Tisch | 1.3% | +0.2pp | $16K | awaiting resolution |
| Steve Bannon | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $22K | awaiting resolution |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | — | $18K | awaiting resolution |
| Peter Attia | 0.3% | — | $23K | awaiting resolution |
| Bill Cosby | 0.1% | — | $14K | awaiting resolution |
| Elon Musk | 0.3% | — | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| Woody Allen | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $23K | awaiting resolution |
| Noam Chomsky | 0.1% | — | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| Deepak Chopra | 0.8% | +0.6pp | $20K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.