Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
1%
Limited history+0.05pp
Lifetime volume $1.1MCloses 28 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
3%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $295 | active |
| Bryan Woo | 0.2% | — | $393 | active |
| Dylan Cease | 3.0% | — | $351 | active |
| Shohei Ohtani | 2.0% | — | $483 | active |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $422 | active |
| Paul Skenes | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $8K | active |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $120 | active |
| José Soriano | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $153 | active |
| Andrew Abbott | 0.3% | — | $201 | active |
| Tarik Skubal | 2.9% | — | $212 | active |
| Jacob deGrom | 0.2% | — | $374 | active |
| Hunter Brown | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $301 | active |
| Seth Lugo | 0.9% | +0.1pp | $359 | active |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $232 | active |
| Logan Webb | 0.4% | — | $380 | active |
| Michael Wacha | 0.8% | -0.3pp | $299 | active |
| Brayan Bello | 0.3% | — | $338 | active |
| Clay Holmes | 0.7% | -0.6pp | $291 | active |
| Garrett Crochet | 2.5% | — | $223 | active |
| Nick Pivetta | 2.9% | +0.3pp | $196 | active |
| Merrill Kelly | 0.3% | — | $119 | active |
| Nolan McLean | 1.1% | +0.05pp | $270 | active |
| Connelly Early | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $167 | active |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 3.7% | — | $135 | active |
| Taj Bradley | 1.6% | — | $160 | active |
| Bryce Elder | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $245 | active |
| Matthew Boyd | 0.6% | — | $160 | active |
| Reynaldo López | 0.8% | — | $185 | active |
| Joe Ryan | 0.3% | — | $147 | active |
| Gavin Williams | 0.5% | — | $188 | active |
| Emerson Hancock | 0.4% | — | $192 | active |
| Carlos Rodón | 0.2% | — | $162 | active |
| Freddy Peralta | 0.6% | — | $137 | active |
| Max Fried | 3.6% | +0.05pp | $109 | active |
| Chad Patrick | 0.6% | — | $169 | active |
Probability sum: 47.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
0%
2%
3%
2%
3%