Loading the latest market intelligence…
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavan McKinney | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $110K | resolved |
| Shri Thanedar | 0.1% | -12.9pp | $115K | resolved |
| Anthony Carbonaro | 0.1% | — | $117K | resolved |
| Nazmul Hassan | 0.1% | — | $117K | resolved |
| Shelby Campbell | 0.1% | — | $136K | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)