EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?

98%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+0.9pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

98%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.9pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $14K and 24h volume is $40. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
98.5%
No implied probability
1.5%
Liquidity
$14K
Market Activity
$14K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:38 UTC

What this market asks

Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?

Current market read

This market is focused on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will visit North Dakota at any point during the year 2026. A visit is defined as Trump physically entering the state, and the market will resolve to 'Yes' if this occurs, or 'No' if it does not. The market is currently active and will close at the end of 2026.

Key takeaways

  • High current market-implied probability
  • Recent positive movement
  • Political event context

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution depends on official sources and credible reporting
  • Market activity reflects only this outcome, not the entire event
  • Future events may affect market dynamics

Resolution summary

No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description. The market will resolve based on official information from the U.S. government, Trump, or his verified social media accounts, along with credible reporting.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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