Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?
90%
Limited history-5.0pp
24h activity $394Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
15%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
15%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 90.0% | -5.0pp | $2K | active |
| Belarus | 7.5% | — | $678 | active |
| Israel | 20.0% | -7.5pp | $1K | active |
| Taiwan | 5.7% | -1.4pp | $1K | active |
| Mexico | 7.0% | +2.0pp | $604 | active |
| Oman | 12.5% | -1.5pp | $231 | active |
| Ukraine | 9.0% | — | $628 | active |
| Italy | 14.5% | — | $189 | active |
| Lebanon | 7.8% | -2.3pp | $662 | active |
| Germany | 36.0% | +2.0pp | $3K | active |
| Japan | 20.5% | -1.5pp | $2K | active |
| India | 10.5% | +1.5pp | $581 | active |
| North Korea | 10.0% | — | $571 | active |
| Russia | 5.8% | +0.2pp | $847 | active |
| South Korea | 23.5% | -13.0pp | $594 | active |
| Pakistan | 6.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Canada | 8.0% | +0.5pp | $295 | active |
| Syria | 7.5% | +0.5pp | $269 | active |
| Saudi Arabia | 23.5% | — | $437 | active |
| Venezuela | 10.5% | +2.0pp | $896 | active |
| Portugal | 31.0% | -0.5pp | $91 | active |
| Switzerland | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| China | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Turkey | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| France | 100.0% | +0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| United Kingdom | 100.0% | +52.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
90%
8%
20%
6%
7%
13%