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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+24.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 97.8% | +4.8pp | $586 | active |
| Utah | 23.0% | -2.5pp | $99 | active |
| New Hampshire | 56.5% | +12.0pp | $136 | active |
| Oregon | 16.9% | +5.0pp | $285 | active |
| Mississippi | 14.0% | +1.0pp | $90 | active |
| Vermont | 26.0% | -1.5pp | $244 | active |
| Wyoming | 31.0% | -4.0pp | $85 | active |
| Idaho | 41.5% | — | $287 | active |
| Illinois | 38.5% | +1.0pp | $60 | active |
| Washington | 21.0% | +0.5pp | $102 | active |
| Hawaii | 16.0% | +1.5pp | $115 | active |
| Kansas | 37.0% | -1.0pp | $125 | active |
| Alabama | 56.5% | — | $95 | active |
| Minnesota | 42.5% | -1.0pp | $67 | active |
| Nebraska | 50.0% | +2.0pp | $65 | active |
| West Virginia | 41.0% | -1.5pp | $58 | active |
| Rhode Island | 29.5% | +1.0pp | $97 | active |
| Colorado | 31.0% | -2.0pp | $92 | active |
| Arkansas | 50.0% | -2.0pp | $57 | active |
| New Mexico | 39.0% | +4.5pp | $59 | active |
| Montana | 42.5% | -2.5pp | $37 | active |
| Indiana | 50.0% | -4.0pp | $26 | active |
| Maine | 50.5% | +2.5pp | $79 | active |
| Louisiana | 49.5% | +5.0pp | $33 | active |
| Massachusetts | 39.0% | -0.5pp | $153 | active |
| Oklahoma | 49.5% | +2.0pp | $95 | active |
| Missouri | 45.0% | +1.5pp | $61 | active |
| Florida | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maryland | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Texas | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Georgia | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Iowa | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Michigan | 100.0% | +0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arizona | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alaska | 100.0% | +24.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Dakota | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Dakota | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Virginia | 100.0% | +13.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| New Jersey | 100.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| California | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| New York | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pennsylvania | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nevada | 100.0% | +1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Connecticut | 100.0% | +4.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ohio | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | +1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | +17.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Delaware | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.