Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Chad Tracy be the next Red Sox manager?
67%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $18Closes 1 Feb 2027
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Current implied probability
3%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
-2.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $787 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Tracy | 67.0% | +2.5pp | $315 | active |
| Brad Ausmus | 1.0% | — | $358 | active |
| A.J. Ellis | 0.5% | — | $418 | active |
| David Ross | 3.2% | -2.3pp | $787 | active |
| Omar López | 3.1% | — | $224 | active |
| Rocco Baldelli | 2.8% | -0.1pp | $229 | active |
| Walker McKinven | 3.9% | — | $101 | active |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 1.9% | -0.05pp | $283 | active |
| Andrew Bailey | 3.9% | -0.5pp | $357 | active |
| Jason Varitek | 2.8% | +0.1pp | $295 | active |
| Daniel Descalso | 3.1% | -0.1pp | $143 | active |
| David Ortiz | 1.8% | -0.05pp | $330 | active |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1.4% | — | $264 | active |
| Brandon Hyde | 1.9% | -0.1pp | $300 | active |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2.5% | — | $198 | active |
| George Lombard | 1.6% | — | $225 | active |
| Morgan Ensberg | 0.8% | — | $160 | active |
| JD Martinez | 0.5% | — | $272 | active |
| Ryan Flaherty | 0.8% | — | $222 | active |
Probability sum: 104.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox. If no permanent manager is appointed by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Boston Red Sox; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
67%
1%
0%
3%
3%
4%