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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 0.1% | -7.3pp | $672K | awaiting resolution |
| Kylian Mbappe | 100.0% | +6.5pp | $1.5M | awaiting resolution |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.1% | — | $598K | awaiting resolution |
| Lamine Yamal | 0.1% | — | $488K | awaiting resolution |
| Ferran Torres | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | awaiting resolution |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.1% | — | $941K | awaiting resolution |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $952K | awaiting resolution |
| Pedri | 0.1% | — | $980K | awaiting resolution |
| Dani Olmo | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | awaiting resolution |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Harry Kane | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ousmane Dembele | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Erling Haaland | 0.0% | -11.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Michael Olise | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cody Gakpo | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Romelu Lukaku | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Igor Thiago | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Vinicius Junior | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Federico Valverde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bradley Barcola | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rafael Leao | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Deniz Undav | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Folarin Balogun | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Desire Doue | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Donyell Malen | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Endrick | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Amad Diallo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Kai Havertz | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Luis Javier Suárez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Luis Diaz | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Antoine Semenyo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Florian Wirtz | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Raphinha | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Depay Memphis | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Noah Okafor | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Memphis Depay | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Heung-Min Son | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Edin Džeko | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sadio Mane | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Scott McTominay | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ivan Perišić | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rodrygo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Andrej Kramarić | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Marcus Thuram | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Serge Gnabry | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dion Beljo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Tim Payne | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.