Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
8%
Limited history+4.0pp
24h activity $80Closes 15 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
79%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
79%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $15. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beccia | 8.0% | +4.0pp | $396 | active |
| Tram Nguyen | 13.1% | -0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Dan Koh | 78.5% | -1.5pp | $4K | active |
| Dominick Pangallo | 0.4% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Diann Slavit Baylis | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Rick Jakious | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Jamie Zahlaway Belsito | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Beth Andres-Beck | 0.5% | +0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Rachel Creemers | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Seth Moulton | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Mariah Lancaster | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Kevin Larivee | 0.6% | — | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 101.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
13%
0%
0%
0%
0%