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Finance

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

100%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+46.3pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 46.3pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 46.3pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
$137K
Market Activity
$2.0M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
26 Jun 2026, 22:38 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 26 Jun 2026, 22:48 UTC

What this market asks

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Current market read

This market is about whether Crude Oil (CL) will resolve to Yes for the "↓ $70" outcome by the end of June 2026. The stored description says it resolves based on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil futures, using only published settlement prices on trading days through the final trading day of June 2026. The current market-implied probability is 99.95%, and the 24h movement is +46.25 percentage points.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows substantial recent volume.
  • The current market-implied probability is near 100%, with a large 24h move.
  • As a grouped outcome, the volume and liquidity reflect this outcome's market activity only.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a multi-outcome event, so figures do not represent the wider event.
  • Resolution depends only on CME settlement prices; intraday prices do not count.
  • The stored data does not provide a deeper explanation for the sharp 24h movement.

Resolution summary

This market resolves to Yes if, on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below $70. It resolves to No otherwise. Only the CME Group daily settlement price for the Active Month counts; intraday prices and non-settlement values do not count. The resolution source is the CME Group website settlement page for light sweet crude oil futures.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 18:30 UTC

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