EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Current

0%

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

2

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.3%
No implied probability
99.7%
Liquidity
$4.3M
Market Activity
$103.4M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
2 Jul 2026, 21:52 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC

What this market asks

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current market read

This market focuses on whether Croatia will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It will resolve based on the official outcome of the tournament, with specific conditions for immediate resolution if Croatia is eliminated or if the tournament is canceled. The market is currently active and has a significant trading volume.

Key takeaways

  • High trading volume of over 103 million
  • Current market-implied probability of 0.35%
  • Active market for a major sporting event

Risks & uncertainties

  • Current movement data is unavailable
  • Resolution details depend on FIFA's official outcomes
  • Market activity reflects only this outcome, not the entire event

Resolution summary

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If Croatia is eliminated from the tournament, the market will resolve immediately to 'No'. If the World Cup is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, it will resolve to 'Other'. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, along with credible reporting.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.