Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
8%
Limited history-2.2pp
24h activity $2KCloses 31 Jan 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
1%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0–6.0% | 8.4% | -2.2pp | $11K | active |
| 3.0–4.0% | 1.1% | — | $10K | active |
| 4.0–5.0% | 88.5% | — | $46K | active |
| 6.0-7.0% | 0.1% | — | $32K | active |
| 1.0–2.0% | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| <1.0% | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| 7.0–8.0% | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| 2.0–3.0% | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| 9.0%+ | 0.1% | — | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| 8.0–9.0% | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $3K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 99.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
89%
0%
0%
0%
0%