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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3-4.6% | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $57K | awaiting resolution |
| 4.6-4.9% | 0.1% | — | $65K | awaiting resolution |
| 5.8-6.1% | 0.1% | — | $76K | awaiting resolution |
| 4.0-4.3% | 0.1% | — | $53K | awaiting resolution |
| 5.5-5.8% | 0.1% | — | $75K | awaiting resolution |
| <4.0% | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $58K | awaiting resolution |
| 5.2-5.5% | 0.1% | — | $32K | awaiting resolution |
| 4.9-5.2% | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $78K | awaiting resolution |
| 6.1%+ | 0.1% | — | $74K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.