Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Chainlink reach $26 by December 31, 2026?
9%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $52Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
49%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
49%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 26 | 8.5% | +1.5pp | $3K | active |
| ↑ 20 | 20.0% | — | $4K | active |
| ↑ 16 | 31.5% | -2.0pp | $3K | active |
| ↑ 18 | 16.5% | -0.5pp | $3K | active |
| ↓ 6 | 49.0% | +1.0pp | $2K | active |
| ↓ 4 | 13.0% | — | $2K | active |
| ↑ 22 | 16.0% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
| ↑ 24 | 11.0% | +1.0pp | $2K | active |
| ↓ 12 | 100.0% | +22.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 8 | 100.0% | +29.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 14 | 100.0% | +8.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 10 | 100.0% | +32.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Chainlink (LINK/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the LINK/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/LINK_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance LINK/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
9%
20%
32%
17%
13%
16%