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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next PM in 2026 | 0.1% | — | $437K | resolved |
| Andy Burnham | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $530K | resolved |
| Wes Streeting | 0.1% | — | $527K | resolved |
| Rachel Reeves | 0.1% | — | $464K | resolved |
| Bridget Phillipson | 0.1% | — | $461K | resolved |
| Darren Jones | 0.1% | — | $425K | resolved |
| Angela Rayner | 0.1% | — | $468K | resolved |
| Yvette Cooper | 0.1% | — | $517K | resolved |
| Nigel Farage | 0.1% | — | $444K | resolved |
| Shabana Mahmood | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $503K | resolved |
| Al Carns | 0.1% | — | $432K | resolved |
| Rupert Lowe | 0.1% | — | $425K | resolved |
| David Lammy | 0.1% | — | $590K | resolved |
| Ed Miliband | 0.1% | — | $378K | resolved |
| Kemi Badenoch | 0.1% | — | $558K | resolved |
| Lucy Powell | 0.1% | — | $441K | resolved |
| Ed Davey | 0.1% | — | $555K | resolved |
| Robert Jenrick | 0.1% | — | $524K | resolved |
| James Cleverly | 0.1% | — | $561K | resolved |
| Boris Johnson | 0.1% | — | $438K | resolved |
| John Healey | 0.1% | — | $371K | resolved |
| OG Anunoby Jr. | 0.1% | — | $459K | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.