Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
21%
Limited history-3.5pp
24h activity $311KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
47%Probability moved up 7.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
47%
24h Change
+7.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 21.0% | -3.5pp | $188K | active |
| ↑ 80,000 | 29.5% | +6.0pp | $40K | active |
| ↑ 85,000 | 20.0% | +2.5pp | $42K | active |
| ↓ 40,000 | 15.5% | — | $57K | active |
| ↑ 100,000 | 7.5% | — | $92K | active |
| ↑ 75,000 | 46.5% | +7.0pp | $65K | active |
| ↑ 140,000 | 3.0% | -0.5pp | $78K | active |
| ↑ 70,000 | 69.5% | +5.0pp | $82K | active |
| ↓ 55,000 | 52.5% | -5.0pp | $108K | active |
| ↑ 90,000 | 12.5% | +1.0pp | $76K | active |
| ↑ 150,000 | 2.6% | -0.5pp | $70K | active |
| ↓ 50,000 | 34.5% | -2.5pp | $90K | active |
| ↑ 200,000 | 1.6% | -0.2pp | $87K | active |
| ↓ 60,000 | 75.5% | -5.0pp | $62K | active |
| ↑ 130,000 | 3.4% | -0.2pp | $71K | active |
| ↓ 35,000 | 10.5% | +1.0pp | $120K | active |
| ↑ 250,000 | 1.6% | — | $102K | active |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2.3% | -0.1pp | $57K | active |
| ↓ 20,000 | 2.5% | -0.4pp | $77K | active |
| ↓ 15,000 | 2.3% | -0.5pp | $63K | active |
| ↑ 180,000 | 1.9% | -0.2pp | $59K | active |
| ↑ 190,000 | 2.0% | -0.2pp | $81K | active |
| ↑ 110,000 | 5.5% | — | $56K | active |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | 0.8% | — | $118K | active |
| ↑ 120,000 | 4.5% | — | $45K | active |
| ↓ 25,000 | 3.1% | — | $111K | active |
| ↑ 95,000 | 10.5% | — | $29K | active |
| ↓ 30,000 | 6.5% | — | $84K | active |
| ↓ 5,000 | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $96K | active |
| ↑ 500,000 | 1.3% | — | $118K | active |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2.5% | — | $68K | active |
| ↓ 10,000 | 2.0% | -0.05pp | $75K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | -16.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 90,000 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | +10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
21%
30%
20%
16%
8%
3%