Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
24%
-1.0ppRecent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
10%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
6
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
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