EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

91%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+9.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 9.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

91%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.5pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
91.0%
No implied probability
9.0%
Liquidity
$25K
Market Activity
$37K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
23 Jun 2026, 22:33 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

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