Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
81%
Limited history-0.5pp
24h activity $1KCloses 18 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
22%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
22%
24h Change
+4.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $14K and 24h activity is $262. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 81.0% | -0.5pp | $16K | active |
| Bernadette Wilson | 93.0% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Matt Heilala | 2.3% | +0.9pp | $19K | active |
| Bill Walker | 21.5% | +4.0pp | $14K | active |
| Dave Bronson | 58.0% | +2.0pp | $1K | active |
| Jessica Faircloth | 1.4% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Click Bishop | 28.0% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Shelley Hughes | 1.6% | +0.7pp | $11K | active |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0.2% | -0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Treg Taylor | 28.0% | -1.0pp | $3K | active |
| Tom Begich | 99.7% | — | $19K | active |
| Matt Claman | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Edna DeVries | 3.5% | +1.4pp | $10K | active |
| Adam Crum | 8.6% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| James Parkin | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Bruce Walden | 1.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Hank Kroll | 1.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Gregg Brelsford | 0.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Lesil McGuire | 31.9% | +26.1pp | $364 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
81%
93%
2%
58%
1%
28%