Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
58%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $230Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is $53. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico - TX-Sen | 57.5% | +2.0pp | $129 | active |
| Kshama Sawant - WA-09 | 1.4% | -0.8pp | $10K | active |
| Zach Wahls - IA-Sen | 3.5% | -3.4pp | $9K | active |
| Dan Osborn - NE-Sen | 20.9% | -37.3pp | $94 | active |
| Antonio Delgado - NY-Gov | 1.0% | +0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Alan Grayson - FL-Sen | 5.8% | +0.9pp | $11K | active |
| Omar Fateh - Minneapolis Mayor | 0.0% | -52.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
58%
4%
21%
1%
6%