EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$72K
Market Activity
$12.1M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC

What this market asks

Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?

Current market read

This market is focused on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026. A visit is defined as entering the terrestrial territory of Iran, and the market will resolve to 'Yes' if this occurs, otherwise it will resolve to 'No'. The resolution will be based on credible reporting.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is low at 0.05%
  • High volume of 12,086,752.33 indicates significant interest
  • Market is categorized under politics

Risks & uncertainties

  • Movement data for the last 24 hours is unavailable
  • Volume for the last 24 hours is unavailable
  • No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description

Resolution summary

If Benjamin Netanyahu visits Iran between the market's creation and June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to 'Yes'. If he does not visit, it will resolve to 'No'. The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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