Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $503Closes 1 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 10% probability for this outcome, a +1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
10%Recent probability movement (up 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
10%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 10.0% | +1.5pp | $14K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | $173K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 57.0% | -3.5pp | $8K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 45.0% | — | $5K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
57%
45%