Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
3%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $20K and 24h activity is $20. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Biden | 3.3% | +0.1pp | $26K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 13.0% | — | $19K | active |
| Donald Trump | 6.5% | -0.2pp | $25K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 10.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 10.5% | -1.0pp | $14K | active |
| John Fetterman | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Barack Obama | 1.9% | +0.8pp | $20K | active |
| Candace Owens | 4.1% | -0.2pp | $15K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 2.9% | — | $14K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 4.7% | — | $16K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 5.5% | — | $16K | active |
| MrBeast | 2.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Katie Britt | 1.3% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 3.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 4.1% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Rand Paul | 5.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 7.5% | — | $19K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 7.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 5.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.3% | — | $13K | active |
| LeBron James | 3.3% | +0.2pp | $14K | active |
| Cory Booker | 5.5% | +0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Mike Pence | 4.1% | +0.6pp | $13K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 7.1% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4.5% | +0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 8.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.8% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 2.0% | — | $13K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 2.6% | — | $16K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.4% | +0.2pp | $15K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 9.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 3.4% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 1.8% | — | $13K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 6.0% | — | $17K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 2.5% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 7.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Tom Brady | 1.9% | +0.2pp | $15K | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.3% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 5.5% | — | $18K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 6.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 2.9% | +0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 7.0% | -1.5pp | $13K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.4% | — | $12K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 2.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Jared Polis | 1.2% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.1% | +1.6pp | $12K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.6% | — | $12K | active |
| George Clooney | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| John Thune | 4.2% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 4.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 3.8% | — | $11K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.3% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 2.0% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 3.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 4.3% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | +0.5pp | $13K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 3.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 11.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 6.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 7.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 7.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 2.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Don Lemon | 8.7% | — | $13K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
13%
6%
11%
11%
1%