EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Aurora make a roster change before July?

5%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-50.0pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 50.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

5%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 50.0pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
4.5%
No implied probability
95.5%
Liquidity
$158
Market Activity
$12K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 20:18 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 30 Jun 2026, 20:26 UTC

What this market asks

Will Aurora make a roster change before July?

Current market read

This market asks whether Aurora will make a roster change before July 1, 2026, based on changes to its main CS2 starter roster on HLTV. A "Yes" resolution would require a player joining or leaving the active starter lineup by the deadline. The current market-implied probability is 4.5%, with 24h movement of -50.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is low at 4.5%.
  • 24h movement is -50, indicating a sharp recent drop in the market-implied price.
  • Volume is concentrated in this roster-change question for Aurora's CS2 starter lineup.

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution depends on HLTV roster status and any qualifying roster move before the deadline.
  • The stored data does not provide a specific catalyst for the recent movement.
  • Liquidity is relatively low at 157.7214, which can make pricing less stable.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Aurora's main CS2 roster, defined as the players listed with status = "Starter" in HLTV's "Players of Aurora" roster table, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It counts official signings, transfers, benchings to inactive/reserve, releases, retirements, departures, or any change that results in a different 5-player active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event do not count. HLTV is the primary resolution source, and credible reporting may also be used; no additional resolution details are unavailable from the stored data.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Aurora's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of Aurora" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/11861/aurora#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: MAJ3R, XANTARES, woxic, soulfly, and Wicadia. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starter lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different 5-player active roster on HLTV. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event will not count. For matches and events, the stand-in appears in the active 5-player lineup but with a clear marker (e.g., [SI]) to distinguish them from the core roster. The primary resolution source for this market will be HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.hltv.org/team/11861/aurora#tab-rosterBox. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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